Will Scotland finally end the All Blacks hoodoo?

Rugby scene
The All Blacks introduced three modifications to the side that overcame Ireland

Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: this weekend Kick-off: 15:10 GMT

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Match moment
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in the previous encounter

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.

Paula Lopez
Paula Lopez

A passionate beer sommelier and homebrewer with over a decade of experience in the craft beer scene, sharing insights and discoveries.